Around the Disabled List

The disabled list has been seeing all sorts of action the past few days. Aaron Harang finally landed on the DL. Harang had been going well with 10 quality starts so far this year. He is not expected to be out much longer than 15 days. I would hold onto him. If you absolutely need innings and cannot afford to save a spot for Harang on the DL look for Carlos Carrasco of the Indians. Carrasco just pitched his second straight outstanding start, against the Yankees no less. Even thought the Indians are struggling currently, Carrasco is not.  In his last 6 starts he is 5-1 with a 3.03 ERA.

 Derek Jeter heads to the DL. He is just 6 hits shy of 3,000. The media will be keeping track of him when he comes back off the DL, but that does not mean you should be. Jeter is a fringe player right now, currently ranked as the 13^th most productive SS in the league. Coming off an injury, you can probably find better options out there. One of those options is Jamey Carroll of the Dodgers. Carroll is now near the top of the Dodgers lineup and is raking up the at-bats. He is batting .319 on the season with 5 steals. He is still available in nearly 75% of leagues.  Darwin Barney of the Cubs is another SS to keep an eye on. He is hitting .294 and has shown some pop, with 25 rbi.

On the flip side, there are players getting healthy. Chances are they are already on teams, but it never hurts to check. Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros came off the DL and pitched 6 scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 3.12 on the year.

     Wandy Rodriguez pitched 6 scoreless innings in his first stint off the DL

A couple of St. Louis Cardinals are also due to come off the DL soon. Kyle McClellan will start on Wednesday (6/15) and Matt Holliday is scheduled to come of f the DL the next day. Holliday is probably not a free agent in your league, but McClelland could be.  Make sure you are always checking the waiver wire throughout the season. You never know when one of your teammates might try to pull a fast one on you and send a stud player down while on the DL. Some people get impatient and dump at the first sign of injury. 

New Section

Check out the new Three up, Three down section of my blog. I will regularly update it with three players you need to pick up, and three you need to send packing.

Three Up, Three Down

This week features guys like Mike Leake of the Reds and Jed Lowrie of the Red Sox.

Depth is no good when its stuck on your bench.

If you want to start chipping away at the league leaders you need to focus on innings and at-bats. I know a lot of people are against adding mediocre players as a way of increasing at bats because they are worried that the new players will bring categories such as average and era, or whip down. When talking about hitters, you need to focus on your starting lineup; there is no good that comes from having a guy racking up the at-bats while on your bench. Sure, you could adjust your lineup based on the opponents starting pitching every day, but that does not always guarantee you more production.

 Your best bet is to fill out your fantasy team with excess starting pitchers. That way you can set your lineup everyday and get as many innings as you can. More innings MIGHT mean a higher ERA and a higher WHIP, it also MIGHT mean a lower ERA and WHIP. It WILL mean more strikeouts and more chances for wins. The positives outweigh the negatives. And there are quality starting pitchers still available that can help you out in all categories. Johnny Cueto of the Reds started the season late after coming off of an injury, but he has not allowed an earned run in three of his seven starts this season. He sits at 3-2 with a very impressive 1.93 ERA on the year. He is available in 36% of Yahoo public leagues. Dillon Gee of the Mets just improved to 7-0 on the season with a 3.05 ERA. He is available in 64% of leagues. Phil Humber of the White Sox is sporting a 2.87 ERA with a WHIP under 1.00. The best part is that he has gone at least seven innings in eight of his last nine starts. He is an inning eater. He is available in 61% of leagues.

Brennan Boesch of the Tigers is red-hot

As far as your lineup is concerned, stock up on at-bats from guys in your lineup. It does not matter how many at-bats a guy is getting if he is on your bench. People might not realize the kind of year Todd Helton of the Rockies is having all of a sudden. He won’t get you stolen bases but he is now hitting .322 and after starting the season batting 5^th, he is now batting third and amassing more at-bats. He is available in 60% of Yahoo leagues. Brennan Boesch of the Tigers is another guy to look at. He has come on strong as of late. He was hitting .250 at the beginning of June and he’s already streaked his way to a .280 average. He is a free agent in 49% of fantasy leagues.

For those of you in a deeper league where any at-bats help, keep an eye out for Bill Hall. He was released by the Astros earlier this month, but just signed with the Giants to fill in for Freddy Sanchez who will miss extended time to a dislocated shoulder.  The Giants lineup is pretty bare right now so expect him to get plenty of at-bats while he is in there.

Remember whatever you do, a guy on your bench amasses no stats. You have to get him into the lineup to take advantage of your team’s depth. 

Be an Innings Hog (and at-bats)

Now that we are nine weeks into the fantasy season, we are starting to see some separation in the standings right? Well just because you are not in the top 3, or even the top 5 that does not mean you can quit. Ignoring the fact that it is unfair to quit if you are playing in a head-to-head league where it is your duty to put up a fight, you still have a chance to win; even if you are in last place. Bare with me as I am going to borrow some figures from the legendary Matthew Berry.

This chart indicates the percent chance someone has of finishing in a certain spot depending on where they are ranked after nine weeks. So, as you can see, your league’s current leader only has a 42.4% chance of staying in first until the end of the season. You could be in the bottom three of your league and you still have over a 2% chance of winning your league. I know that’s not a very high percentage, but that means it is possible. You just have to know how to start your comeback.

Chances are if you are near the bottom of your league it’s because some of your guys have not performed like you had hoped, and you probably have some injuries you are waiting out. Time to cut the fat, and start getting some stats!

                You do not have time to hold onto guys that are going to be out for another month or so. You cannot afford to have multiple people on the DL taking up roster spots. You need AB’s and innings if you want to get back into the race. So if you have Jonathon Broxton it’s time to cut ties. Even if he gets back the closer job sometime in July do you really want to be relying on a guy coming off of elbow problems getting you saves? If he does return to form, chances are you can swoop in and pick him back up anyway.

                A couple of New York Mets should be testing your patients by now also. How much longer can you afford to wait for Ike Davis and David Wright? Not long.  It is also time to cut ties with the chronically injured. Guys that are due back soon, but chances are they will get hurt again. I’m looking at you Jake Peavy, Travis Hafner, and Eric Chavez. You obviously wait on a guy like Matt Holliday or Hanley Ramirez, and despite no one being able to tell me WHATS GOING ON WITH JOE MAUER! I am willing to hold onto him as well.

                So there’s what you can’t afford to do. Come back tomorrow and I’ll tell you what you can do.

                

Play Fantasy Baseball Like the Stock Market

So you are in 8^th place out of 12 teams? No big deal. The baseball season is very long. Two months does not a season make.  So far this season Lance Berkman has 12 homeruns and 40 RBI. Teammate, and perennial fantasy baseball MVP, Albert Pujols has 13 and 38. If you had to make a bet on who will hit more homeruns and RBI for the remainder of the season who would you put your money on? I know I’d go with Pujols.

There actually aren’t a whole lot of over-achievers that standout this year. Matt Joyce of the Rays, Asdrubal Cabrera of the Indians, and Corey Patterson of the Jays are the closest things to over-achievers we have this year. There is a fair share of pitchers out there that you should be wary about.  Jared Weaver continues to fall back to earth after his near perfect start. But who I would be most cautious with is the young pitcher. There are a few young pitchers having great years so far. Alexi Ogando of the Rangers, and Michael Pineda of the Mariners are two examples. These are two good, young, promising players who have great careers ahead of them. But that doesn’t mean they will keep up what they are doing right now.

Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals was great during the first half of 2010, he had an ERA of 2.17 and struck out 80 batters. He was okay in the second half of the season, but a 3.53 ERA with only 52 strikeouts is a big drop-off in fantasy value.  This wasn’t as bad as Mike Leake of the Reds. Leake was 6-1 with a 3.53 ERA and 70 strikeouts in the first half of the season. In the second half he only went 2-3 with a 6.91 ERA with only 21 strikeouts. Dillon Gee of the Mets and Josh Tomlin of the Indians are two more inexperienced starting pitchers to monitor.

To be a truly successful fantasy baseball manager, you cannot just know when to dump players who are about fall off a cliff. You have to know who to replace them with too. Finding value is not always easy. I doubt anyone was dumb enough to drop Albert Pujols after a slow-start.  What about Shin-Soo Choo? He has been dropped in 4% of Yahoo public leagues. Not a very high percentage but it’s worth a look to make sure he is not available in your league. He claimed to the media that he has felt added pressure following his DUI and has not been playing well. But as he gets further and further removed from his arrest, I would expect him to bounce back closer to the .300 average he has had the last couple seasons.

A couple of Chicago White Sox head up the all-disappointment team so far. Adam Dunn has long been a great asset to a fantasy baseball team, his statistics remarkably consistent; over 40 homers and 90 RBI for the last 7 seasons with an average around .250, until this year. On top of that, Dunn is typically a better hitter in the first half of the season (2/3 of his Homeruns before the all-star break), despite this I would take a waiver on him. He is a free agent in nearly 20% of all Yahoo leagues, and he might be close to a free agent in your league. It may not take a very big offer to get Adam Dunn on to your team. If you are a team in dire need of homeruns, he is your guy to get. Dunn’s teammate Alex Rios is another guy to look at. He had 34 steals just one year ago, but only 4 so far this season. His steals are down because his average is down. He currently has a BAbip of .205, over .100 points lower than his career average. Babip tends to average out, so I would expect Rios’s fantasy stats to rise along with it.

                One final player to watch is Delmon Young of the Twins. He is having an absolute awful season, batting .215 with only 1 homerun. He’s actually hitting more flyballs then groundballs for the first time in his career. Unfortunately, he is currently popping up at an alarming rate. Thirty percent of his flyballs have not left the outfield. Once he settles down and stops swinging for the fences on every at bat I would expect his totals to return to normal.

                Starting pitchers are a different story. Just because a guy had a great season last year, does not mean you can count on him repeating his performance. So don’t think you can pick up a struggling Ubaldo Jimenez or Zach Greinke and automatically have them turn into an All-Star. If you really want to find value, look at the closers department.  

                Some closers appear to be underperforming with a low save number. Francisco Cordero of the Reds appears to be having a subpar season; he is only tied for 17^th in the league with 11 saves. But then you realize he is 11 for 13 with an ERA of 1.59. You would expect the Reds to play in a higher percentage of close games as the season goes on. If Cordero keeps up his stats, his value as a closer will skyrocket.  Some other closers that fall into this category are Neftali Feliz of the Tigers, Fernando Salas of the Cards, and Kyle Farnsworth of the Rays.  In the opposite direction you have some guys with high save totals, but otherwise shaky stats.  Brandon League of the Mariners is tied for 5^th in the league in saves despite a 4.68 ERA. Leo Nunez of the Marlins and Craig Kimbrel of the Braves have each pitched well this season, but they are both the benefactors of the most save situations in the league. If you need hitting or starting pitching, sell your closers high.

                Fantasy Baseball is like the stock-market. Ride a player while he’s hot, but make sure you sell him before he slumps. This is the key to fantasy baseball.